Contact: Jeremy Hill, director, W. Frank Barton School of Business Center for Economic Development
and Business Research, 316-213-3673 or jeremy.hill@wichita.edu.
For the fourth annual Center for Economic Development and Business Research S&P 500
Prediction Challenge, Wichita-area business professionals provided predictions on
the value of the S&P 500 stock market index on Sept. 1, 2021.
The challenge respondents predicted,on average that the index would grow to 3,640
index points by Sept. 1. This would represent an increase of 114 index points as compared
to its closing value one year prior on Sept. 1, 2020, which would be a and increase
of 3.2%.
A majority of respondents predicted an increase in the market, with the median prediction
forecasting growth of 7.8%. The bullish predictions on average forecasted an increase
of 331 points, while the minority of bearish predictions forecasted a decline of 426
points on average. All of the predictions made ranged between a decline of 16% and
an increase of 13%, a wide range of possible outcomes for 2021.
The consensus forecast from major national banks, such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan,
was more bullish than Wichita’s forecasters, with Goldman Sachs projecting growth
of 11% and JP Morgan projecting growth of 15% in 2021.
The S&P 500 index closed at 3,526 on Sept. 1, 2020, an increase of 20.5% compared
to one year prior. During the past five years, the index averaged annual growth of
12.1%, increasing more than 1,500 points from a base of 1,989 points in September
2015.
A graph and table are available at the above link.
Wichita State University serves as the Kansas urban-based research university, enrolling
more than 15,000 students from every state in the U.S. and more than 100 countries.
Wichita State and WSU Tech are recognized for being student centered and innovation
driven.
Located in the largest city in the state with one of the highest concentrations in
the United States of jobs involving science, technology, engineering and math (STEM),
Wichita State University provides uniquely distinctive and innovative pathways of
applied learning, applied research and career opportunities for all of our students.
The Innovation Campus, which is a physical extension of the Wichita State University main campus, is one
of the nation’s largest and fastest-growing research/innovation parks, encompassing
over 120 acres and is home to a number of global companies and organizations.
